LOU’S LOCK’S WEEK 6
Had a nice bounce back last week as the Locks went 3-1 ATS (7-13 ATS for the year), and my leans went 5-3 (24-16 for the year). A recap of last week: Iowa (-7) drubbed Minny, O$U (+3) won SU over Sparty, the Horns (-2.5) scored late to cover against Ok St, and Ariz (-3) failed to hold on allowing Oregon St to score and win in the last 2 minutes of the game. Hoping to finally string 2 weeks together this week and get back closer to .500.
A great slate of games this week as we start to get into conference play. The Texas (-6.5)/WVA game is very intriguing and appears to be begging you to take the Neers and the points. My lean would be to Texas. The SEC has two titanic tilts that will go a long way in deciding who plays in ATL for the title. We also have 4 SEC teams coming off of bye weeks this week which over the past 5 years has been an ATS cash cow, covering over 60% of the time. SEC teams coming off a bye week and playing an unrested team have covered over 60% of the time (in 2007 this theory was 10-0 ATS!). Florida, Vandy, Miss St. and Auburn all fall into that category this week. Almost pulled the trigger on the Gators (+3) in the Swamp, but the wild card of the Mad Hatter on the sidelines made me shy away. Several good spots/situations on the board as well with teams coming off big emotional wins or bad performances. Remember, teams are not as bad or as good as they appear from the previous week. It is hard to get up for each and every game, and teams have let downs or play up to the competition from week to week. Finding value in the lines based upon the public perception is key. Hopefully, we can locate a few this week.
1. UGA +1 @ SO CAR – This line opened at So Car -2.5 I think based in large part from everyone witnessing TN score 44 points on the Dawgs last week. I think the UGA defense is better than they showed last week, and I am not sold at all on the So Car offense (ranked #60 in total O) against a very weak schedule to date. Gamecock RB M. Lattimore does not look like himself pre-injury. If UGA can slow down the running game, make So Car one dimensional and reliant on QB C. Shaw, then they can win this game. UGA has a very balanced and explosive O that leads the SEC in scoring. While So Car has a great front 7 on D, their secondary is very suspect. I am going with UGA and double revenge here. UGA 34 SO CAR 24
2. PURDUE +3 v. MICH – Really like the Boilers here catching 3 points at home. Purdue is 3-1 this year with a narrow loss to ND, and is flying under the radar in the Big 10. They have a very balanced O (262 avg. pass/202 avg. run) which is scoring 42.5 points a game. The Wolverines have been struggling to stop the run this year and rank #90 in the nation in rush D. Michigan has also struggled to score points on the road over the past 2 years avg. 20.9 points away from the Big House. QB D. Robinson has struggled throwing the ball with a 55% completion rate and 6 TDs and 8 INTs. Purdue needs to make Shoelaces a passer and not a runner. I think Purdue come away with a SU win here. PUR 31 MICH 28
3. TULSA/MARSH OV 67.5 – This game has video game written all over it. Marshall is ranked #18 in scoring offense racking up 41 points/ game. Tulsa is even better ranked #14 in scoring O at 42 points/game. But it gets even better, Marshall is dead last in the nation in scoring D allowing 44.5 points per game. The Herd QB R. Cato is dynamic with 1920 passing yds. and 15 TDs. Tulsa will be able to score at will on the Herd. TULSA 45 MARSH 37
4. LA MON -3.5 @ MTSU (OGDS) – This is another Obscure Game Degenerate Special, and is a spot/situational play. The Blue Raiders are coming off the biggest win in the program’s history beating GT like a rented mule. I am sure their feet did not hit the ground all week and they have been told by everyone how good they are. Now they face a battled tested Warhawk club who is pretty good and very well coached. I really like the RB and QB at MTSU, but this is just a horrible spot for them. Monroe whips them. LA.MON 38 MTSU 28
LSU/FLA. UN 45.5
KENT ST -3
SO MISS +9.5
OLE MISS +12.5