LOU’S LOCKS WEEK 4

 

 

Luckily for most of you last week’s Locks were not posted on Feelslike98.com. For the others of you who did receive it, my sincerest apologies. Just a brutal week where nothing hit ….0-4 ATS (3-9 ATS for the year). I pulled a Tyler Bray and did not even watch the 2nd half films ….as each team crapped the bed in the 2nd half for me. TCU (-21), TN (-3), U$C(-10) and BGreen (+3.5) all losers. So this is the bounce back week, and I have digging hard for winners this week. here’s to a turn around in week 4. My leans went 4-4 ATS  last week(15-9 for the year).

 

 

Here are some of my random thoughts as I went through this week’s slate of games. In the 3 marquee games this week, you have huge DD favorites ….. F$U (-14+), Okla. (-14) and Oregon (-21.5, opened at -24.5). The initial inclination is to take the big dogs and all these points here. “BEWARE of the public underdog!” I can still hear these words ringing in my ears from my youth as my Great Uncle McCoy, a local bookie in Humboldt, TN, preached the ins and outs of handicapping to me from a young age. So I am not touching any of these games. Speaking of Oregon, they are 0-3 ATS this year leaving the back door open each and every game. Incredibly, the Ducks have outscored their opponents in the 1H this year 120-21, then liberally substituting in the 2nd half. If you play Oregon, you should probably consider a 1H wager or nothing at all. Bama is a 51 point favorite over the Owls of FAU.  Saban has only beaten teams by more than 51 on 3 occasions, but who is brave enough to put cash against Bama right now? So far in the Sec there have been 6 games played, in those 6 games the away team is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Just a little something to keep in mind as the season moves along. Road teams in SEC get favorable lines usually (value) and playing in so many hostile environments may work in their favor as it is not so new to them. Plus, you have less distractions as the road team. This week we have 4 SEC matches, and one of those road dogs made the Locks. Here is to a big bounce back week, let’s get it started.

 

 

1. TULSA -5 v. FRESNO ST.Sometimes you need to go ugly when you are in a slump. This game right here has “slump-buster’ written all over it. Not pretty at all, but it does the trick. When capping CFB games I have learned that “routine” is huge. Teams in a routine play better and those out of it don’t. Remember these are 17-22 year olds we are talking about. The Bulldogs from the Valley have had anything but a routine start to the year. Open up with a W against Weber St (0-3), get trounced at Oregon (score was 35-6 at half), then have a record breaking night against Colorado (over 650 yds. of O and 8 TDs). Now Fresno hits the road and travels 2 time zones to play a fresh Tulsa team. Fresno has not had much success in similar road trips in the past 4 years.  On the other hand, Tulsa is looking to play its 3rd straight home game (routine) and they have a very efficient O led by 3 RBs (J. Douglas, T. Watts and A. Singleton) combined averaging 6.4 yds./carry. QB C. Green (Neb. transfer) has been solid at the helm. Fresno has shown flashes on O with RB Rouse and QB Carr. But this game comes down to which D you trust, and the answer is Tulsa. Tulsa is ranked #36 in total D led by SS McCoil and LBs D. Brown and D. Jennings. Tulsa leads the nation in TFLs and is #2 in sacks. The Bulldogs are up and down and this week looks to be down. TULSA 38 FRESNO 27

 

 

2. MIZZOU +10.5 @ SO CARIs it just me or is So Car one of the most overrated teams in the nation? From what I have seen, they are not a top 10 team. Sure, they have a great front 7 on D, but is anyone scared of QB C. Shaw, seriously? Plus, RB M. Lattimore (78 yds./game) does not look 100% to me. Mizzou has the short to mid range passing game that could give the Cocks fits. The weakness on D for So Car is the secondary and they will be without DJ Swearenger (susp.) this week and A, Auguste is out again this week. Mizzou should be able to capitalize with WRs TJ Moe and D. Green-Beckham. Mizzou has an underrated D  which allows 291.3/game while So Car is giving up 315.9/game and should be in this game all day. Mizzou has the advantage in ST which could play huge in this one. I expect a tough, hard fought low scoring game. I’ll take the DD points. USCe 24 MIZZOU 21

 

 

3. WVA/MARYLAND OV 60.5Thought I would put out a total this week to change the karma a little. WVA has a loaded O that  averages 55 points/game and is led by QB G. Smith and a host of skill players. All we need is for the Terps to hit close to their average …. 21 points/game and we should be fine here. This is a tune-up game for the ‘Neers before they get to B12 play and I expect them to be hitting on all cylinders.. The Terps are young and inexperienced, and should have their hands full with the fast tempo of the WVA O. This game could get out of hand early and a ton of back-ups playing in the 2nd half. Lots of points in this one. WVA 51 MARYLAND 20

 

 

4. SJST +3.5 @ SDST (OGDS) I am bringing back an old reliable here. The Obscure Game Degenerate Special. For those who have read my write-ups over the years, you will recall these games no one cares about, usually late night, an unnoticed gem. Well we got one this week. The Spartans are a quality club, playing Stanford close 20-17 in an opening night loss and then  hammering UC Davis and Colo St. the next 2 weeks. Here we have the wrong team favored as SDST struggled last week to beat FCS foe North Dakota. The upstart Spartans have a good Qb in D. Fales and also bring in a running QB at times. They have a decent D as well holding opponents to under 20 points avg/game. SJST wins straight up! SJST 31 SDST 24

 

 

 

LEANS  (OTHER GAMES THAT ALMOST MADE IT)          

 

F$U -14

PENN ST -7.5

RUTGERS +10.5

LSU -21

GT -14

ND -5

UTAH +7

OLE MISS -18.5

         

 

  GOOD LUCK