LOU’S LOCKS –WEEK 1
It’s that time of year again. CFB season kicks tonight, and this is the first installment of Lou’s Locks, a weekly write-up of college football picks ATS. I have been doing this for a number of years and look forward to bringing you winners each week. I will be picking between 3-5 games each week and providing an analysis of why I believe these games will hit. My focus is on looking for favorable match-ups and situations where the books provide value based upon the lines they set. I am not a “trends and angles” guy. I am looking forward to helping everyone smash the books this year. Follow or fade, it’s up to you.
2012 FUTURES WAGERS
I placed a few futures bets this year. I have had some success in the past with these types of wagers ( took Auburn to win BCS in 2010 at 35-1). So I thought I would give it a whirl this year. These are very small wagers just for kicks. Here is what I took this year:
Regular Season Win totals – TN over 6.5 (-220); AUB under 7.5 (-150); F$U over 9.5 (-200); Miss. St. over 7.5 (+130) and Wisky over 8.5 (-280).
Odds to win the BCS – F$U at 12-1
Odds to win conf. title – VT to win ACC at 3-1 (hedge on F$U bets); WVa to win B12 at 6-1 (value); Mich St. to win B10 at 8-1 (more value) and TN to win SEC at 30-1 (a homer pick but tons of value).
WEEK 1 PLAYS ATS
1. WASH ST. +12.5 @ BYU (Thurs) – Shiver me Timbers …. the Pirate is back in CFB coaching in Pullman, Washington. I love Mike Leach, and he has some players to implement his “air raid” system. QB J. Tuel will flourish under Leach and WR M. Wilson is a pre-season All American in some publications. This offense will score a ton of points this year. The D has some definite issues and may have trouble stopping the Mormons from scoring too. Both teams return 14 starters (7 on O and 7 on D) from last year, so it should be an entertaining game. While BYU is a quality team this year (some have them going undefeated), I just think they lack speed to keep up with the Wazzu O, and I like getting this many points. BYU 38 WAZZU 34
2. MICH ST -6.5 v. BOISE (Fri) – Boise has a recent history of doing very well against BCS schools (won last 6), especially when they have time to prepare. However, this year’s version of Boise will not be nearly as talented. They only return 2 starters on D from last year and have to replace the QB with the most wins in CFB history, K. Moore. The Spartans return a loaded D led by DE W. Gholston and should limit a very green Boise O. Sparty also returns a strong, veteran OL (4 of 5) and a dynamic RB in L. Bell. I think the odds makers are giving Boise way too much respect based upon their past showings in games like this. I love HC Petersen and what he has done at Boise, but they will be outclassed in this one. MICH ST 28 BOISE 13
3. UGA -37.5 v. BUFFALO – A lot of chalk to lay in this one, but early in the year is when big faves seem to cover these types of numbers. This is just a mismatch of epic proportions. Buffalo’s best player LB K. Mack is suspended for this game and 2 other starters at LB, J. Verser and W. Mounds are academically ineligible for the year. The Dawg O will score at will, and we should see lots of ground game from RBs K. Malcome and true frosh. K. Marshall. QB Erin Murray will also be given a chance to put up numbers. I think UGA will want to show the pundits they were right in making them a top 10 pre-season pick. “But Lou, what about all the suspended players in the secondary for UGA?” Not to worry. Buffalo has a QB A. Zordich returning who only completed 42% of his passes last year and had 1 TD and 6 INTs. The loaded UGA front 7 (J. Jones, J. Jenkins, et al.) on D will have a field day. This one gets ugly early and the Dawgs roll. UGA 55 BUFF 7
4. U$C -41 v. HAWAII – Once again we are laying huge lumber in this one. But if there was anyone who wanted to rub it in it is HC Lane Kiffin against his arch enemy Norm Chow who is in his first HC gig at Hawaii. As you all know U$C is loaded for bear this year and will want to impress the voters. QB M. Barkley will begin his Heisman campaign in this game, and with WRs M. Lee and R. Woods the scoreboard may need a third digit. Add in Penn St transfer RB S. Redd, and you have the making of a good ol’ fashioned wood shedding. The Rainbow Warriors are implementing a new system under Chow and have very few playmakers with which to do it. Plus, Hawaii is never very good off the island even in their best days. U$C 63 HAWAII 10
Vandy/So Car under 45.5
Iowa St +1.5