LOU’S LOCKS – WEEK 7
The Locks got juiced last week going 2-2 ATS (a paltry 9-15 ATS for the year), but the Leans went 6-2 ATS last week (a smoking 30-18 ATS for the year). To recap last week’s Locks, we had 2 horrific picks (UGA +1 and Purdue +3) neither of which ever challenged, and 2 plays that covered easily with Tulsa/Marshall OV 67.5 and La.Mon. -3. Looking to climb that mountain this week in search of getting above .500.
A ton of interesting match-ups this week as teams are fighting for position ahead of the first BCS rankings that will come out on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the BCS rankings shake out, and to what extent the computers play a role in where teams land. Bama and Oregon appear to have the top 2 spots locked up, but it is hard to ignore WVA, So Car and Florida as legitimate players for consideration. Speaking of WVA, Vegas trots them out as a 4 point favorite against a TTech that got trounced last week against Oklahoma. It seems like everyone and their grandmother loves the Neers here, but be careful, the Couch Burners are on back to back roadies to the state of Texas (lots of travel) and have a huge game with KState on deck. This game has a bad stench to it and may be a public blood bath ….stay away. The Ol’ SEC Bye Week theory went 3-1 ATS last week …..Florida +3, Vandy +6.5 and State -10 all covered.. Slawburn – 8.5 got beat SU against Arky at home and was the only team not to cover in this situation. This Theory presents us with 2 games this week (Bama -21 and TN +3), one of which made the Locks. This is the time of year where the Vegas lines seem to get sharper and sharper, which makes it difficult to find good value. Hopefully, we have found some gems to play this week.
1. BAMA -21 @ MIZZOU – I usually shy away from playing away teams laying DD, but just can see no reason not to play this one. Bama is coming off a bye (SEC Bye Week Theory) and is looking to hit its stride. HC N. Saban is masterful with extra time to prepare, and spent most of the off week talking about the new fad of “hurry-up” offenses in a brilliant move to take focus away from his team and put it on himself. Bama is #1 nationally in total D and scoring D, and #3 in rush and pass D, respectively. The Bama O is not flashy but very efficient with QB AJ McCarron at the helm throwing 12 TDs and 0 INTs. this year. Mizzou is coming into this game off an emotional loss to Vandy where they lost their starting QB and center. The Tigers are really beat up and now they have to face a well rested Crimson Tide. I see Bama getting RBs Lacy and Yeldon involved early and Mizzou having no answer at all. Tide Rolls in this one.
BAMA 41 MIZZOU 7
2. OLE MISS -5 v. AUB - The wheels officially came off last week for Auburn as they were coming off a bye yet lost at home to a struggling Arky team. You know it is bad when the HC’s wife starts blaming Beelzebub for Auburn’s poor play. There is chatter amongst players that there is no leadership, the fans are calling for Chizik’s head and the team is not really good at anything. The War Eagle/Tigers/Plainsmen rank dead last in the SEC in total O and #12 in total D. The QB play has been dismal, and there is talk of playing all 3 QBs this week. They come to Oxford to face a rejuvenated Rebel-Black Bear team under first year HC H. Freeze. Ole Miss is playing their tails off for this guy and are looking for their first SEC win in their last 16 tries. Ole Miss runs a well balanced hurry-up O averaging 213 rushing and 225 passing. My only concern is that Ole Miss is coming off a devastating loss to A&M last week where they had a 10 point lead with 9 minutes left in the game. But it appears Auburn will be the elixir for that pain.
OLE MISS 28 AUB 17
3. UAB/HOU OV 67 – I think we get a shoot-out in this one. UAB ranks #101 in scoring D and Houston ranks #96 in that same category. The Blazers seem to have found their offense in the past couple of weeks, and the Cougars are hitting their stride on O as well. Cougar RB C. Sims leads C-USA with 127.5 yds/game and QB Piland is #2 is passing in C-USA at 344 yds/game. Both teams like a fast pace and look to get as many offensive snaps as possible. Both offense are averaging around 30 points a game, but those stats were compiled for the most part against pretty stiff defensive competition (UAB has faced So Car and O$U). HOU 43 UAB 34
4. KENT ST -2 @ ARMY (OGDS) – These have been hitting so I am going to the well again with the Obscure Game Degenerate Special. Kent St opened as a 4 point dog but quickly moved across the line and now they a re a slight favorite. Army is coming off an emotional win over BC and Kent St is playing really well. I expect a let down from Army here. Kent St only allows 128 yds rushing a game, and that is all that Army does. They do it well (#1 in nation in rushing), but if you can slow them down, they are in trouble. Kent St has a very balanced O this year avg. about 200 yds, rushing and 200 yds. passing. They also are one of the best in the nation in TOP. I think they can put up points and. frustrate this Army O. KENT ST 34 ARMY 24
LATECH/A&M OV 79